Beware of survivorship bias when interpreting data

Byryan

During World War II, researchers at the Center for Naval Analysis faced a critical problem. Many bombers were getting shot down on runs over Germany. The naval researchers knew they needed hard data to solve this problem and went to work. After each mission, the bullet holes and damage from each bomber was painstakingly reviewed and recorded. The researchers poured over the data looking for vulnerabilities.((Syed, Matthew. 2015. Black Box Thinking. New York: Penguin Random House. pp 33-37))

The data began to show a clear pattern (see picture). Most damage was to the wings and body of the plane.

Source: When data gives the wrong solution

So, you reinforce those areas and you’re done, right? That sounds like it would be the correct course of action, but it’s wrong.

Similar Posts

Ten-year Trends in Public Opinion from the EdNext Poll: Common Core and Vouchers Down, but Many Other Reforms Still Popular

Ten-year Trends in Public Opinion from the EdNext Poll: Common Core and Vouchers Down, but Many Other Reforms Still Popular

Byryan

Common Core and vouchers down, but many other reforms still popular. Source: Ten-year Trends in Public Opinion from the EdNext Poll: Common Core and Vouchers Down, but Many Other Reforms Still Popular Fascinating data into common core, tenure, teacher salaries, etc. I especially like the differences in responses to questions such as spending and salaries…

Using the Dungeons and Dragons role playing game in the classroom

Using the Dungeons and Dragons role playing game in the classroom

Byryan

The mainstreaming of the popular roleplaying game Dungeons & Dragons has significantly changed how people address and understand the game. It’s become a spectator sport and a way for some gamers to earn their living. D&D gameplay and its symbolism have become a significant plot point in geek-oriented TV shows like Stranger Things and The Big Bang Theory. It’s the subject of copious scientific…

Is the innovation in our classroom simply what we’ve always done, except with technology?

Is the innovation in our classroom simply what we’ve always done, except with technology?

Byryan

A few months ago, I noticed an increased amount of discussion around the notion of blended learning. Many of these conversations started on a similar note: “We’re blended—all of our teachers use Google Classroom” (or Edmodo, Schoology, Canvas, Moodle, etc.). However, in probing further, I often discovered that these tools had merely digitized existing content…

The Mindset Conference

The Mindset Conference

Byryan

I was at a technology and education conference, earlier this week. But as I reflected on my learning from the conference, I came to the conclusion that it didn’t seem like a technology conference. Instead, it was a mindset conference. It was an innovation conference. It was a conference about the power of connectivity. It…

Fifteen characteristics of a teacher

Fifteen characteristics of a teacher

Byryan

Recent technological advances have affected many areas of our lives: the way we communicate, collaborate, learn, and, of course, teach. Along with that, those advances necessitated an expansion of our vocabulary, producing definitions such as digital natives, digital immigrants, and, the topic of this post — “21st-century teacher.” Source: 15 Characteristics of a 21st-Century Teacher…